OR-5: One of the dangerous dozen

Stu Rothenberg, one of the top DC pundits, has identified a dozen "dangerous" open seats - seats likely to change parties.

Of the 12, only two are currently held by Democrats -- Oregon's 5th and Alabama's 5th. There are only three west of the Mississippi (New Mexico's 1st and Arizona's 1st are the others.)

Here's how Rothenberg described the race to replace our Congresswoman Darlene Hooley:

Oregon’s 5th: Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley’s retirement gives Republicans a competitive Democratic seat to shoot at. Each party has a primary. For the Democrats, it’s state Sen. Kurt Schrader and former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks, and for the GOP it is former party Chairman Kevin Mannix and ’06 nominee Mike Erickson. Bush carried the district narrowly in 2004.

We're headed for a monster race in the fall.

Learn more about Kurt Schrader and Steve Marks. And then use the BlueOregon ActBlue widget at right to make a donation.


  • Bill R. (unverified)

    Whoever the Dem. candidate is, in this my district, the fall has to be a referendum on George W. Bush and McSame. Inevitably the Repubs will nominate someone who is completely in line with those policies, on Iraq, on the economy, on privatization of soc. sec.

  • LT (unverified)

    Mike Erickson has run before and lost and even one of my Republican friends makes jokes about him.

    Kevin has lost how many statewide elections? Regardless of how he has done in Marion County previously, people here know him. Why believe he would be a better federal candidate than a statewide candidate?

    The only Republicans to have held the 5th District seat have been Denny Smith (who orig. won in the old 2nd Dist. due to a 3rd party candidate the year Reagan was elected, and then chose the Salem /5th Dist. area rather than the sprawling 2nd CD when we got the new district) and Jim Bunn who won a close election (I think we learned the result on Thursday or Friday--certainly not election night) in the great Republican year of 1994--only to be defeated by Darlene 2 years later.

    This is NOT going to be another 1994---too many people are angry. If Mannix and Erickson continue their "Republicans know best" attitude rather than give and take town hall meetings with ordinary folks, they are in for a surprise.

    "Oregon’s 5th: Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley’s retirement gives Republicans a competitive Democratic seat to shoot at. " is an example of an outside observer having no clue about the voters who will actually decide the election. How a district looks on paper is not the same thing as actually talking to voters.

    That said, everyone who lives in the 5th Dist. should take any opportunity to listen to the candidates speak. They are different in age and background. Like AG and US Senate, there is a legislator running against a very smart person who has never run for office before, and the 2 candidates approach the campaign very differently.

    I knew people who voted Bush / Hooley in 2004. Somehow I don't see them voting for Mannix unless he goes back to his old style of townhall discussions of voters (did a good job of that when he was a Dem. state rep. all those years ago) AND the Dem. nominee makes great blunders.

    But then, I have been involved in (or at least very aware of) every 5th Dist. Cong. election starting with the first one in 1982.

  • (Show?)

    All of the candidates running for this position will have the chance to face-off this Tuesday at the North Clackamas Chamber of Commerce "Eggs and Issues" forum. The meeting begins at 7:30 at the Chamber on Harmony Road just off of 82nd Avenue.

    <h2>I support Kurt Schrader and have worked with him to pass educational legislation for students in Oregon. He is bright, gets things done, and is someone you can count on if he makes a promise.</h2>
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