OR-5: New poll, money numbers, and Nancy Pelosi
- SurveyUSA has a new poll out in the Fifth Congressional District race. Kurt Schrader leads Mike Erickson by a margin of 51% to 38%. Margin of error is 4.1%.
Erickson leads 49-42 among voters age 18-34, and 45-43 among voters age 35-49, while Schrader leads 58-32 among voters age 50-64, and 57-31 among voters over age 65. Erickson is holding onto Republican voters by a margin of 77-13, while Schrader leads among Democrats 86-6. Unaffiliated voters are tied 39-39. Despite Erickson's abortion scandal, he leads among pro-life voters 68-21.
- In the FEC reports filed yesterday, Kurt Schrader reported $516,912 raised in the 3rd quarter. Mike Erickson raised only $30,690 (from 17 contributors) and loaned his campaign another $100,000. For the election cycle, Erickson has now raised a total of $2.09 million (mostly from himself) and Schrader has now raised a total of $1.03 million. And, of course, Erickson's ability to write more checks to his campaign is nearly unlimited.
- On October 24 - the Schrader campaign will host an event with Speaker Nancy Pelosi at Mama Mia Trattoria in Portland. Tickets are $100 and available at ActBlue.
- This week, Willamette Week endorsed Kurt Schrader, noting that "he always scores well on WW’s legislative rankings for his smarts and independence" - and calling Erickson "the most unimpressive candidate running in Oregon this year." Schrader was also endorsed by the Oregonian and the Statesman-Journal.
Learn more and volunteer at KurtSchrader.com and donate via ActBlue.
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Oct. 16, 2008
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Oct 16, '08
New Oregon Senate poll out of Ras at 12 PM Pacific and President at 2 PM...
11:13 a.m.
Oct 16, '08
Looking at those numbers in Oregon's Fighting Fifth CD and seeing Erickson's strength among Republicans and pro-lifers, you've got to wonder:
A. How many likely voters outside the Portland media market have even heard about Erickson paying for his girl friend's abortion?
B. How many have heard about it but figure it's just more lies from the liberal media?
C. How many don't have a problem with it?
And are Erickson's attack ads working, but only with younger likely voters? Sure looks that way.
11:40 a.m.
Oct 16, '08
"Most unimpressive" is the least impressive editorial diction choice I've seen reported this morning, though doubtless a recurring one in variations at WW, since common everywhere. Either will do for Erickson.
The way anti-abortion voters split reflects something about activists on the issue, I think -- a hypocrite vote is still a vote, & M. E. would doubtless vote their way whatever he does or has done in his personal life, but there are a chunk of the voters as opposed to activists (maybe a few of them too) who can't stomach it, I guess -- or aren't single issue.
12:32 p.m.
Oct 16, '08
Also, have to say that the Pelosi event gives rise to childish impulse to spend the money for an opportunity to go and ask rude questions. Probably won't, though.
Oct 16, '08
Rasmussen now has the Ore. Senate race tied 47-47. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/oregon/election_2008_oregon_senate
They don't seem to have the third parties here, which is a big factor in this race, whereas SUSA does, perhaps accounting for the difference.
Oct 16, '08