Allen Alley: Blowing up on the launchpad

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Allen_alleyI've been reading the La Grande Observer a lot lately (mostly because of the Steve Martin thing), and I came across an article from Monday about Allen Alley and his nascent bid for Governor.

Unfortunately for Alley, it seems that he's falling flat on his face, right from the start.

For starters, Alley is pretending that he's some kind of extra-special magical Republican that can win in Multnomah County.

"I had the best showing for a Republican ever in areas, especially Multnomah County," he said. In the heavily Democratic area, Alley received over 30 percent of the vote.

Setting aside the utter stupidity of traveling to La Grande and bragging about how much they love you in Portland, he's just wrong.

Alley got 32% of the vote in Multnomah County. In 2002, Gordon Smith got 39% of the vote. In 1996, Gordon Smith got 34% of the vote. And in 1998, Jack Roberts got 50% of the vote for Labor Commissioner (though, admittedly, that post doesn't include party labels on the ballot.) And I only went back 12 years. I'm willing to bet that folks like Norma Paulus and John Frohnmayer and Vic Atiyeh and Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood did better in Multnomah County than ol' Allen Alley.

On an entirely separate note, Alley also addressed the federal stimulus package:

But in regards to the stimulus package recently passed, Alley said he would likely follow some other Republican governors and refuse parts of it that equal millions in areas like unemployment.

"It sounds odd, but you don't want a future liability for a short-term gain," he said.

Wow.

Given a choice between siding with popular Republican Governors like Arnold Schwarzenegger and the popular Charlie Crist, and siding with miserable failures like Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal, Allen Alley has aligned himself with.... Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal.

And that's just the politics. Let's talk about the economics.

The whole point of a stimulus package is to convert a future liability into a short-term gain. By spending now (through long-term debt), the idea is to shorten the recession and get us back to prosperty faster.

And, of course, there's the key point - that boosting unemployment benefits is among the most effective ways to inject cash into the economy. Unemployed people, after all, are highly likely to spend the money they receive.

And finally, Allen Alley really, really, really, wants to punt on the immigration issue. Smart guy - it's a self-inflicted wedge issue that separates the corporate Republicans from the social conservatives. Unfortunately, he's trying the wrong tack:

Alley said if undocumented residents break the law they should be sent back to where they came from, but he would support a guest worker program and a path to citizenship for those following the rules.

"But if a child's a citizen and the parents are illegal, what do you do? There isn't one single and clear answer," he said. "I don't think states should take on the issue, it's a federal issue.”

As the Oregonian has been reporting this week, it's very definitely a state issue. And any person that wants to be Governor had better figure out how we're going to protect innocent little Oregon children from being shipped to foreign countries to be abused and murdered.

Allen Alley, we hardly knew ye.

Comments

  • (Show?)

    Palin/Jindal is my 2012 dream ticket!

  • Sigh (unverified)
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    Gov. Schwarzenegger isn't very popular right now. In fact, he's near an all-time low right now: http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/1676666.html

    As a Californian, I'd put him more in the "failure" category with Palin and Jindal - except, they're more popular in their states than Schwarzenegger is.

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    Jack Roberts, Norma Paulus, Dave Frohnmayer, Vic Atiyeh, Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood might be Republicans, but they bear little resemblance to the folks in charge of the GOP today. They represent what the GOP used to be, before it was taken over by anti-intellectuals who resent the Enlightenment. A GOP lead by Roberts, Paulus, et. al., might actually have a chance of earning my vote.

    From what I know of Allen Alley, he probably has views similar to the folks named above. Alas, he'll either have to hide them in the primary or give up any chance of being governor. It's too bad, really.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    popular Republican Governors like Arnold Schwarzenegger

    Popular in which parallel universe exactly?

  • (Show?)

    While I would say Alley has done better than a lot of GOP statewide nominees in recent history, he seems to be right in line with Frohnmayer 1990, Mannix in 2000 and Zajonc. All right around 30%. As Kari pointed out there are still a lot more who have done better. It takes Republicans either no serious opposition to win Mult. County or a poor Democratic nominee to lose it. The odds of Alley having a poor Democratic nominee are nill.

    Mark Hatfield '84 61%, '90 49.3% Packwood '39% Frohnmayer '90 31.5% Zajonc '84 30.7% Rutherford '84 49.3% Meeker '88 50.3%

  • alcatross (unverified)
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    Kari says: ...siding with popular Republican Governors like Arnold Schwarzenegger...

    eh... maybe he's popular among some Democrats, but last month Ahnuld had a 33% approval rating. (Looks like other people beat me to it - heh!)

    Kari also says: boosting unemployment benefits is among the most effective ways to inject cash into the economy.

    Maybe true - but what you DON'T tell us here is that the stimulus unemployment $ comes with strings attached that affect some states more than others. States like Alaska and Louisiana governed by those 'miserable failures' Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal, respectively - plus now 7 other states. To get the money, some states would have to significantly expand their benefits structure. It's a valid concern because accepting the $ would thus commit the states to continuing to pay those expanded benefits even after the stimulus $ runs out - likely meaning the need for future tax increases.

    So it will become imperative those states get to 'future prosperity' sooner because they'll have higher taxes to pay!

    Also keep in mind that some of the 9 states considering refusing the unemployment $ are among the poorest in the nation - so they're doubly sensitive to tax increases. You see, Kari - the 'raise taxes first and ask questions later' theory so often espoused here at BO isn't necessarily practical for every state.

  • (Show?)

    Alley says he's done better in areas, especially Multnomah County. While I agree it's clumsy, what I think he's saying is that within Multnomah County, there are areas where he's done better than any other Republican. That's probably true, although the vast meaning is questionable.

    And hasn't our own goobernor ALSO refused to use all of the stimulus? Sure, he just wants to save it for the next biennium, but it's not any smarter of an idea than rejecting it in principle.

  • Urban Planning Overlord (unverified)
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    I smell fear in Mr. Chisolm's posts. I'm sure he would much rather see some yokel like Jason Atkinson get the nod for the GOP in the 2010 governor's race.

    That being said, Allen Alley appears to be going the route of Ron Saxton, and that's quite as much as a dead end for the GOP as Jason Atkinson.

    Also, I don't think comparisons with past results in Multnomah County, at least beyond this decade, are relevant. MultCo is increasingly democratic every year - remember that Eastern MultCo produced the Minnises as late as 2006.

  • Don't forget (unverified)
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    Don't forget Alley ran against Westlund who wasn't from Portland and who beat Alley in places like Deschutes and Jackson counties where an R should have won.

    If Alley faces a D with better name recognition in PDX, his numbers there will decrease significantly.

  • (Show?)

    Gov. Schwarzenegger isn't very popular right now.

    Mea culpa! Mea culpa!

  • (Show?)

    Also keep in mind that some of the 9 states considering refusing the unemployment $ are among the poorest in the nation - so they're doubly sensitive to tax increases.

    Huh? It all depends on who you're taxing.

  • (Show?)

    And hasn't our own goobernor ALSO refused to use all of the stimulus? Sure, he just wants to save it for the next biennium, but it's not any smarter of an idea than rejecting it in principle.

    No. In fact, all of the school spending in the stimulus was designed to go into the next biennium - and be unavailable in this biennium... until Kurt Schrader convinced the Democratic leadership to tweak the bill and allow states to use some of the money this biennium.

    And don't forget that big chunks of the stimulus roll out this fall, next spring, and even into 2011.

  • (Show?)

    i'm not sure how Alley can be Atkinson, given the far-right bent of the Oregon GOP. moderates are now NAVS or Dems, and Alley is a moderate. the GOP primary turnout next year will probably be low, and Atkinson will be the Rs sacrificial lamb to be slaughtered by DeFazio/Bradbury/Novick/Kitz/any of a dozen other possible candidates.

  • (Show?)

    "until Kurt Schrader convinced the Democratic leadership to tweak the bill and allow states to use some of the money this biennium."

    Then your answer isn't No, but Yes...since the bill is now tweaked?

    I don't buy the "this/next biennium" claim in any case; the federal government doesn't work on a biennium.

  • (Show?)

    I don't buy the "this/next biennium" claim in any case; the federal government doesn't work on a biennium.

    That's right. The feds work on a fiscal year, and most of the money appears in the next fiscal year - which overlaps with Oregon's next biennium.

  • (Show?)

    I smell fear in Mr. Chisolm's posts. I'm sure he would much rather see some yokel like Jason Atkinson get the nod for the GOP in the 2010 governor's race.

    Yeah, fear. I'm terrified of Allen Alley. Ooooooo.

  • (Show?)

    I still think Mult. County is a waste of time for Alley or any other statewide Republican. If I were them, I would be trying to widen my margins in WA, CLACK and other mostly suburban counties based on my the 08 results.

  • DSS (unverified)
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    what I think he's saying is that within Multnomah County, there are areas where he's done better than any other Republican.

    What he's saying is that he's garnered more Multnomah County VOTES in a single election than any other Republican... which appears to be true.

    But while comparing votes rather than percentages may be a preferable talking point, it conveys an implication that is not at all true.

    This seems to be a preview of Alley's style of resume polishing... As I've said before, this should be an interesting race as Alley, a relative newcomer but a quick learn, hones his communications skills and message discipline.

    2010 will not be dull. :)

  • (Show?)

    Allen Alley reminds me a lot of Carly Fiorina -- someone whose notoriety is associated with running a business who uses his alleged acumen at running a business to bolster his candidacy, but who was at the helm for a big part of the long slide of that business into the crapper. He's just another great example of a business guy trying to fail upward.

  • Pedro (unverified)
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    I was surprised how poorly Alley ran against the recently converted Westlund who actually had a minor scandal to deal with. Alley's team of well dressed elephants with matching laptops never seemed to find a message or a way to deliver it effectively.

    Kari is absolutely correct to say that Alley is running the wrong way. He sure won't win the GOP primary pushing a pro-choice agenda. If he had any real desire at all to be the nominee, he'd strap on an automatic pistol ala Lars and denounce the tax and spend liberals in Salem. If he happened to win he could then move to the center.

    Just a guess but perhaps he's looking to run a little further down the ballot...

  • alcatross (unverified)
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    Kari says: Huh? It all depends on who you're taxing.

    Oh yeah... I forgot I was talking to someone who's never heard of reasonable rates of taxation on a broad tax base. To you, all government revenue should be collected via confiscatory rates of taxation on a very small segment of the population. So much easier to pass additional tax increases when over half the voting public doesn't have to pay for them.

  • LT (unverified)
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    A broad tax base would mean getting rid of a lot of tax breaks. It was Republicans who put in a lot of those tax breaks.

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    Yeah, I'm going to agree with LT. Just roll back the tax breaks in Oregon law to mid-1990s levels. That would go a long way to repairing the breach.

  • Zarathustra (unverified)
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    Rulial, if Bob Peckerwood was one of the good 'ol Reps, does that mean you'd include Clarence Thomas? Sexist curmudgeons fit well in with today's republican party.

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    Zarathustra, I was referring to Packwood's policy stances, which were moderate. If I recall correctly, before the harassment scandal broke, he had the support of NOW. He publicly defended choice and opposed the Bork nomination. Of course, he committed unforgivable acts and it was good he was forced to resign. My point is that Packwood's moderate politics were typical of the GOP of old, but would be unwelcome in the GOP today.

  • LT (unverified)
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    It appears there may be a bipartisan effort to review tax expenditures (tax breaks) finally, involving st. reps as diverse as Chuck Riley and Sal Esquivel.

    I'd prefer sunsetting all the tax breaks and having the good ones (mortgage on first home, historic buildings, that sort of thing) discussed openly and perhaps preserved. There are other proposals to have them reviewed on a regular basis.

    Does Alley have a position on all this, or like Saxton is he one of these soundbite guys with no substantial proposals?

    One thing about Packwood--he founded Dorchester to allow young moderates to have a place to discuss things, although now it is more of an institution than anything else.

    But what really did him in was not his sex life, that was just the straw that broke the camel's back.

    What did him in was an episode of the sort Steve Duin once described as "when you try to nail down Bob Packwood, you will find he is greasing the handle of your hammer".

    He WAS a pro-choice Republican, and there were women who would cross anti-abortion picket lines to hear him speak. He got a primary challenge from Joe Lutz, and a famous feminist sent out a fundraiser for his primary campaign. He won the primary, the Dem. campaign that year imploded, and he had all that left over money he didn't need. He gave a large chunk of that money to the Oregon House Republicans (many of them anti-abortion) in that classic tradition known as campaign finance pass-throughs.

    There were women who heard about that and said NOT ANOTHER DIME, BOB!

    There have been Oregonians fighting pass-throughs ever since (non-partisan, and a complaint against Future Pac and other caucus campaign arms).

    Nationally, Packwood still had a reputation as a feminist hero--one almost had to know one of the angry Oregon women contributors to know the level of the anger. But from that moment when he gave away the money after winning the primary against Lutz, Packwood was the classic tree on the edge of a riverbank whose roots are being eroded by the river. The strong wind of scandal hit in 1995, all those angry women and their friends refused to lift a finger to save him, and that was that.

    Years ago, when women were first being elected legislators, someone famous was addressing a group of politically active women giving advice on campaigning. One piece of advice was to have strong political views, "and if you don't stand for something, sit down".

    Alley would be wise to follow that advice. What does he stand for, specifically? Does he follow the legislature and say he supports certain legislation, opposes other legislation and WHY?

  • Stephan Andrew Brodhead (unverified)
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    I read many of your articles during 2008. You come off as a Joe McCarthy style journalist. You are mean hearted, condescending, and a person who looks to exploit the worst in Human beings. You sat there and prodded republicans with a skewer the entire election cycle with a sick grimus on your face. Most of your articles lack any true objective content or journalistic integrity!

    The Oregonian has been reporting this week, it's very definitely a state issue. And any person that wants to be Governor had better figure out how we're going to protect innocent little Oregon children from being shipped to foreign countries to be abused and murdered.

    Normally would I not give creedence to your articles, but, What do you mean by the above statement? Are you saying that a child that is born in the United States of America from an undocumented worker should not be sent home to GranMa because he or she will be murdered? I do not get the logic? Every illegal worker, "You know the illegal worker that takes jobs from real Oregon citizens", sends their paychecks back to Mexico on Friday. This revenue is second only to oil revenue. They send their paychecks to grama and grampa. I do not see how sending a child back to gramma and Grampa is a bad thing! Will they suffer from "death by tortia?"

    The governor should make E-verify mandatory for employment in Oregon. All Kulongoski has to do is pass an executive order like Napolitano did in Arizona. He wont do this. He will try and pass legislation that tracks our cars so we have to pay gas taxes, but he will not mandate the use of E-verify. This is just another example of political hypocricy!

    I forgot you are an open borders guy. You think all legal working Oregonians have an obligation to pay for an illegals health care when the only signs an Illegal alien can read are stop, go, bus stop, welfare office, money order and emergency room!

    give me a break! If you like Mexico so much, just go live there. Sneak across the border, have a baby, ask for welfare, ask for social security, go to the emrgency room without $500 bucks in your pocket and see how far you get!

    wwww.StephanAndrewBrodheadForCongress.com

  • (Show?)

    "wwww.StephanAndrewBrodheadForCongress.com"

    I can't decide if the extra w is for wingnut or wackjob. Your pick. This makes Pavel sound like DeFazio.

  • (Show?)

    I wish Pavel was running for Congress.

  • (Show?)

    I read many of your articles during 2008. You come off as a Joe McCarthy style journalist. You are mean hearted, condescending, and a person who looks to exploit the worst in Human beings. You sat there and prodded republicans with a skewer the entire election cycle with a sick grimus on your face. Most of your articles lack any true objective content or journalistic integrity!

    Oh please God..let this paragraph be about me!

  • Zarathustra (unverified)
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    Oh please God..let this paragraph be about me!

    wipe that "grimus" off your face!

  • Flatbread (unverified)
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    wipe that "grimus" off your face!

    And eat your tortia.

    Requiring E-verify is definitely a pro-worker policy as it will increase jobs for legal Oregonians -- even those who might not speak or read English so well -- and it would be fought tooth and nail by the Republican-leaning business owners who profit off the sweat of their illegal workers.

  • joel dan walls (unverified)
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    I still say that if Allen Alley would just change his name to Alley Alley, he will immediate capture the votes of the "Keep Portland Weird" set and thereby launch himself on a trajectory to a sweeping victory. Only thing is, he can't do this in a GOP primary. I recommend that after the name change, he switch to the Libertarian Party, because no actual Libertarian would condone anyone criticizing a candidate's name. (The typical GOP primary voter, in contrast, would think anyone named Alley Alley is assistant anti-Christ to the anti-Christ-in-chief, Barack Hussein Obama.) A party switch by Alley would have at least two salutary effects:

    (i) The "Keep Portland Weird" crowd, in order to vote for their guy, will have to re-register as Libertarians, instantly increasing Libertarian registration by at least a factor of ten and giving the LP an aura of numerical respectability. As a result of this,

    (ii) Jim Kaarlock will instantly find himself forced into a political alliance with people who ride bikes or the bus and at least occasionally buy organic vegetables. This will cause Kaarlock's head to explode, thereby reducing the frequency of his posts at Blue Oregon.

  • (Show?)

    Kari, I will bet you any amount that your statement, below, is wrong:

    I'm willing to bet that folks like Norma Paulus and John Frohnmayer and Vic Atiyeh and Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood did better in Multnomah County than ol' Allen Alley.

    Hint: John Frohnmayer has never run for public office.

  • LT (unverified)
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    Gee, Dan. I admit he had lousy crowd building skills (never hold an event in an auditorium when the audience that arrives would have fit better in a classroom), but I seem to recall John Frohnmayer running for US Senate at some point. Or was that a lecture we went to at the local comm. college and not a campaign event?

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