A few weeks ago, initiative backers around Oregon turned in signatures for their petitions in an effort to get them on the ballot. At the time, Kari posted the list of potentials, along with the math on which measures were likely to make the cut, which were not and which were on the bubble.
Here's what Kari said on July 3 about Kevin Mannix's redistricting initiative:
Nonpartisan redistricting commission (full text pdf). They turned in 125,948 raw sigs. Since it's a constitutional amendment, they'll neeed 110,358 valid. In order to make the ballot, they'll need to have a valid rate of 87.6% - a tall order. I'm skeptical that they'll make it (unless they did something unusual, like pre-screening their signatures.)
The results are now in, and Mannix's initiative didn't make the cut. But instead of revisiting his incompetent signature gathering campaign, Mannix and his cadre are whining about Secretary of State Kate Brown following and applying the rules that everyone other initiative is required to follow.
The initiative needs 110,358 valid signatures to make the November ballot. Elections officials have not finished checking the 125,948 signatures initiative petitioners turned in -- a number Secretary of State Kate Brown has said was the closest call among initiatives that submitted signatures. But already, the Elections Division has thrown out 12,975 signatures, making it highly unlikely that the measure will qualify for the ballot.
"It's a devastating situation," said Kevin Mannix, who helped write the initiative. "We know we can't make it on the ballot if they pull this many without even looking at them."
In other words, Mannix is pissed that Kate Brown applied the same rules to his initiative that she applied to everyone's and he didn't make the cut because his team didn't gather enough signatures.
Initiative Petition 50 is probably not going to make the ballot for one simple reason: Mannix turned in way too few signatures. The campaign turned in roughly 126,000, which would require an 87.6% validity rate. As far as I'm able to divine, no initiative in the last 10 years has had a validity rate that high. In fact, since 2000, only one has been above 85%, and that was Measure 9 in 2000. Mannix's other initiative this year, IP13, had a 68% validity rate.
There's no possible way they were going to make the ballot, and they knew that when they dropped off the signatures. Or if they didn't, then they're idiots.
Essentially, Mannix, Common Sense for Oregon, and VOTE Oregon LLC screwed this thing up from the get-go. They started too late didn't really ramp up until they saw they could tap into people pissed off about M66 and M67. Basically, it was revenge marketing that happened too far down the road.
The other reason Mannix may be hitting the panic button here has to do with money. Normally, Mannix only has Loren Parks' money. But this time, he had a lot more investors. Some noteworthy players bought into this: $35,000 from AOI, $10,000 from Stimson Lumber, $50,000 from Phil Knight, $25,000 from Oregon Restaurant Association, not to mention tens of thousands from other donors and corporations. To put it simply, Mannix has a lot of explaining to do to a lot of major donors--and he's in no hurry to cop to his mistakes. So what does he do? Loudly and disingenuously shifts the blame to Kate Brown, claiming that because she is following the rules, that sunk the initiative.
All in all, Mannix's boondoggle fleeced more than a half million dollars for Initative Petition 50. Keep in mind that this cash could have gone to Chris Dudley or other GOP legislative candidates--and Mannix basically just flushed it down the toilet. That can't be making his benefactors very happy.
Not a pretty picture.
And speaking of not pretty, radio hatemonger homophobe Bill Post thinks the problem is that Kate Brown is bisexual. What a jackass.