No Doubt about this: Mary Nolan Rises

Evan Manvel

While the debate continues on the conflicting mayoral poll results from yesterday, there was another race included in the polls – the race for the Portland City Council.

Both polls released yesterday confirmed previous trends: as people learn about Rep. Mary Nolan, her support grows. This race – once a run-away for the incumbent – is now a toss-up.

Nolan started her race more or less unknown, facing an incumbent. That’s an uphill, politically difficult task. Voters simply don’t know who state legislators are (even if they're among leadership). Despite her long record of accomplishments, voters were unaware of this fabulous legislator.

In mid-March, the only publicly available polling showed her trailing 44-10%.

But we campaign for a reason. All the polls since mid-March have shown a marked increase of support for Nolan.

Here are the ones I'm aware of:

DatePollFritzNolanOtherUndecided
2012-05-07Survey USA3134 1521
2012-05-06Elway3328728
2012-04-30DHM3225340
2012-MarchFritz campaign4410-43
2011-NovemberFritz campaign 4115-43

It’s now what most will agree is a race too close to call. It may end up in a November run-off, as there are three other candidates in the race. That's an impressive change from just eight weeks ago.

Disclaimer: I support Nolan, and co-chair Bike Walk Vote, which has endorsed her.

Comments

  • (Show?)

    This is why we campaign! I work on Nolan's campaign, frequently phone banking and find more often than not, people are simply unfamiliar with Nolan. Once they hear about all the wonderful work Nolan has done for our city- and her proven track record of getting real results for Portland on issues we really value- they realize Nolan will be a great addition to City Hall! Good to see this reflected in polling!!

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    I like both candidates a lot. Unfortunately, nothing generates votes like a million bucks. Amanda is a great rep for the people of Portland and she deserves to retain her seat. I'd love to see Mary on there too, but I don't get that choice.

    • (Show?)

      To be clear, no one's spending a million bucks in the Portland City Council race - or even a third of that.

      And if merely spending a million bucks generated votes, you'd see different polling results in the mayoral race.

      Nolan is being introduced to voters in various ways, and she's making a compelling case. And yes, there are only five spots on the council.

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    One of the most ridiculous moments of chutzpah I've ever witnessed in politics was Amanda Fritz this past weekend campaigning with volunteers before a Timbers match outside Jeld Wen. The very same team and stadium she fought tooth and nail to deny this city. The woman truly has no shame.

    Mary Nolan is my choice for City Council.

    • (Show?)

      I got a really good laugh out of that as well. At some point in the campaign I wouldn't be shocked if she somehow took credit for what an incredible success the Timbers have been.

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    It's probably true in this race that Mary Nolan "started more or less as an unknown", but that's a pretty sad commentary on the electorate, as Mary Nolan was prominent in Salem and represented Downtown for years.

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    If the electorate paid attention Fritz wouldn't even be in this race. If you vote for her you haven't paid attention to 4 years of ineptitude.

  • (Show?)

    Nolan's attack ads turned me off. So I will vote for Fritz. Progressives should keep the campaigns positive and not emulate the GOP primary campaigns.

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