Well, folks, we have ourselves a monster pile of polling results to wade through. Late Monday, the Oregonian released statewide and Portland polls from Elway Research, and OPB and Fox-12 released statewide and Portland polls from DHM Research. Here's the rundown:
|State Lege Generic||Democrat||49%||Republican||36%|
|M82: Casino Amend.||Yes||28%||No||66%|
|M83: Casino Statute||Yes||26%||No||66%|
|Portland Arts Tax||Yes||28%||No||48%|
Lots of numbers there, of course. I'd love to hear what you have to say about 'em. Here's a few of my thoughts:
It strikes me that there's remarkable consistency on the questions that both pollsters asked -- with the very big exception of the Secretary of State race, and to a lesser degree, the Labor Commissioner race. Hard to know why the discrepancies there.
Despite all the Republican enthusiasm for Knute Buehler, it sure looks like he's going to get crushed by Kate Brown - whether by 6 points or 15. It just goes to show - newspaper endorsements are nice to have, but they're not critical for victory.
Brad Avakian and Bruce Starr clearly haven't broken through to the public - and the lack of a party identifier on the ballot is making it hard for folks. That's partially going to get cleaned up when folks open up the voters pamphlet when they look at their ballot - but it also makes it super-clear that everyone who supports Avakian needs to speak up, and let their friends know that. Facebook is a critical tool here, folks.
I don't know about you, but I'm rather surprised by the margin that Amanda Fritz has built over Mary Nolan. Before the primary, the conventional wisdom was that Nolan would roll over Fritz. That didn't happen then, but the conventional wisdom reasserted itself over the summer. Of course, lots of that "wisdom" was predicated on the idea that Fritz couldn't or wouldn't raise any money. I don't know if anyone knew she had the ability to drop large six-figure piles of cash into her campaign.
I think it's a little strange that neither pollster studied Measure 79, the constitutional amendment by the real estate industry to ban a tax that doesn't actually exist (roll eyes). After all, other than the casino measures, this is the one that's had the most spending on its behalf.
Your two cents?