Punditology 2012: What's our collective, conventional wisdom?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

At long last, it is finally Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 271 folks who participated in the 2012 Oregon Primary Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work, and prove us all wrong!)

Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.

To the predictions!


First, there's no surprise in the Presidential. 83% think Barack Obama is going to win the popular vote and 94% think he's going to win the electoral vote. 55% think he'll win with 270 to 299 electoral votes - and 37% think it'll be 300 to 364 EVs.

Almost no one picked any states to flip toward Obama from the states he lost in 2008. As for states he won that folks think he'll lose in 2012, 178 folks picked North Carolina, 167 picked Florida, 149 picked Indiana, 68 picked Virgina, and 52 picked Colorado. The rest got tiny support.

In the tiebreaker question, the median number of Oregon votes for Barack Obama that we punditologists picked is 980,000.

Second, the Congressional races.

And yeah, I stupidly left out Missouri, Indiana, and Montana from the pick list.

Third, the Oregon Statewide races.

Fourth, the Portland and Clackamas County races.

Fifth, the Oregon Senate races.

If all three of those races are won by Democrats, and barring any shockers, Democrats should land once again at 16 seats. And sure enough, 69% of us have pegged it at 16. 16% think it'll be 17, and 5% think it'll be 18 or more. 9% think it'll be a 15-15 tie, and just 2% think the Democrats are going to lose control.

Sixth, the Oregon House races.

Put that all together and our collective wisdom pegs it at a 32-seat Democratic majority - with a 51/49 shot at a 33rd seat in HD-49.

Sure enough, just 5% think the Democrats win 29 or fewer seats. 3% think it's a 30-30 tie again. 23% think it's a bare 31-seat majority. 46% think it's 32 seats. 16% think it's 33 seats. And 7% think it's 34 or more seats.

Seventh, the ballot measure races.

Our conventional wisdom suggests that just three meaures will pass:

While six measures all fail:

As for the local measures in Multnomah County:

And for the two bonus questions:

And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

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