Punditology 2016: Our collective, conventional wisdom

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

Our long national nightmare is almost over. And by that, I mean, that the toxic orange menace is finally going to achieve his lifelong dream -- and get his very own streaming video service ($7.99 a month and no commercials!) that we'll all be able to ignore. (Irony alert: He'll make more money than he's ever made before.)

Anyway, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 218 people who think they're smart enough to call 'em all in 2016. Our participants include lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, journalists, elected officials, formers of all sorts, and a whole lot of political junkies and activists.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. See 2014, 2012, 2010, and 2008. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favorite campaign is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

Also, note that these percentages say nothing about the expected vote totals. If 100% of us think that a candidate is going to win 51% to 49%, the number you'll see here will be 100%.

To the predictions!

First, the presidency:

This is an easy one. 97% of us think that Hillary Clinton is going to win. Please let us be right.

52% of us think it'll be a 300 to 331 electoral vote win -- solid, but less than Obama '12. 28% of us are panicking, worrying about a 270 to 299 vote win. 12% of us think it'll be bigger than Obama '12 (332 to 364 votes). Just 2% think it'll be bigger than Obama '08 (over 365 votes.)

If we're right that NC, OH, and IA are the only changes from 2012, then that's 323 electoral votes for Clinton.

Second, the fight for control of Congress:

Put all those race-by-race calls together, and our consensus call is that there will be a 50-50 tie -- unless the Democrats can snatch that Louisiana seat in a tough December runoff.

That said, we had little agreement when pegging the number. 28% think the GOP will have 47 or fewer seats. 20% think they'll have 48. 27% think they'll have 49. 14% are calling the 50-50 tie. Just 11% think the GOP retains its majority with 51 or more seats.

Finally, 92% of us think the Republicans retain control of the House, but just 4% think the majority will grow. 65% think the GOP will lose a net 18 or fewer seats, and 24% think it'll be 19 to 29 seats lost.

Third, our statewide races in Oregon:

Fourth, the Oregon legislature:

In the Senate...

In the House...

In other words, putting all that together, our consensus is that a possible 36-seat Democratic supermajority is a coin flip -- and something to watch closely tonight!

Individually, we're not quite that confident. Just 26% of us think 36 seats is likely. 27% think there will be no change; 35 seats for the Ds. 46% think we'll lose seats, but retain the majority. Zero people think we will either have a 30-30 tie, or that the Democrats will lose the majority.

Finally, the local stuff:

Oh, and the tiebreaker:

And there you have it. There's nothing left to do but wait. And work, dammit!

Good luck, everyone!

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