Punditology 2012: Which political nerd reigned supreme?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

At long last, it is time to report on the results of the 2012 Punditology Challenge.

It's two weeks after election day, but we didn't have a winner until the final three election results were called over the weekend. With the three Democratic wins by Florida's Patrick Murphy and Arizona's Ron Barber and Krysten Sinema, the Democrats are pegged at 201 seats. (Our question was whether it would be 199 or less, or 200+, so the outcome was in doubt!) Thanks for your patience.

First, a note about our conventional wisdom.

As usual, as a group - all 271 of us - were mostly right, except when we were wildly wrong. Overall, our consensus picks were right 94 times out of a possible 107 - substantially above the median individual.

Go back and review our conventional wisdom here.

Now, on to the real question you care about: Who won? Which political nerd reigns supreme?

Top marks, with 98 of 107 correct, go to Dan Isaacson and Dmitri Palmateer. Dan is a UO grad who is now a professor in Chicago, and Dmitri is an aide to Governor Kitzhaber. Tiebreaker goes to Dmitri - who pegged the Obama vote total at 999,999. (No, Dmitri, this isn't Price is Right!)

Congratulations, Dmitri, we bow down to your crystal ball!

Dan and Dmitri are followed close behind, with 97 of 107 correct, by Michael Burdick and Doug Moore. Michael is an aide to State Treasurer Wheeler and Doug is the executive director of OLCV.

Six people got 96 of 107 correct: Jonathan Poisner, Dena Hellums, Jon Isaacs, Logan Gilles, Aaron Rabiroff, and Marc Zolton. Note that the top 10 punditologists include the last three executive directors of OLCV. Wow.

The median number picked correctly? 89 out of 107.

Honorable mention goes to... well... me. I called the Obama vote total at 943,163 - just 830 votes off the current count. I had no idea! (Overall, I ranked 24th. Eh.)

Thanks to everyone who participated. We'll do it again in two years!

Comments

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    As a non-Portland area resident, it seems to me that a number of the questions in the poll dealt with metro-Portland races which the rest of us in the state are unfamiliar with. Is it possible in the future to break the poll into two parts- one dealing with national and truly state-wide candidates & issues, while the other can include the regional Portland area?

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    I just want to know if I did better or worse than Kari. ;)

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      Ha! Nice. Everyone who participated got an email with their personal score. We don't publish 'em here because, well, that would embarrass some people. A lot of people.

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        hmm. strange, I didn't get an email. perhaps it went into my spam folder and I deleted it without realizing what it was. oh well. I think I did reasonably well.

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    I felt pretty good about getting 85 until I found the median was 89.

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    Regarding the Arts Tax and the choices media made in its coverage, there is an excellent post election analysis of the campaign on Arts Watch - Barry Johnson. http://bit.ly/QRWBSo

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