The Senate Count. Update: Merkley by 382 votes.
As of 9:45 a.m., the latest count has Gordon Smith leading by 11,000 votes.
But just about every county is upwards of 95+% completed - except Multnomah, with 47% counted; Lane, with 46% counted; Benton with 74% counted; Clackamas, with 62% counted ; Deschutes, with 64% counted.
Oregon pollster Tim Hibbits called it last night for Fox 12, and he's standing by his call:
Hibbitts said this morning that he expects the remaining 190,000 Multnomah County will tip the race in Merkley's favor."If you look at the composition of the voter base that's still out, it's going to favor Merkley. But it is possible I will have to eat crow on this one."
It's worth remembering, folks, that this happened in 2006. We went to bed with a very close race for Ted Kulongoski, but by mid-day Wednesday, he had a blowout win.
So, we wait.
Update, 10 a.m.: BTW, the issues in Multnomah County are related to a HUGE last-minute surge of votes, which slowed down their count. Also, there was a rumor running around last night (at the party and in our comments) that Multnomah County stopped counting at midnight. That's not correct. They stopped reporting at midnight, but locked their overnight shift of ballot workers inside and kept going all night. By law, they had to keep counting - and a friend drove by at 3 a.m. and confirmed they were all still there. In Lane County, there was some technical problem that caused them to have to start all over early yesterday, so they're just behind.
Update, 10:11 a.m.: Multnomah County just released its 10 a.m. update, just 49% counted - and the Oregonian's count is down to Smith by 7000 votes.
Update, 10:38 a.m.: Linn County just updated for the first time since last night, now at 78% counted - and the Oregonian's count is now Smith by 9035 votes. I've been running my own numbers over here, and my estimate is that Merkley stands to pick up another 35,516 votes - for a net win by 26,481 votes. Also, I heard that part of the Multnomah County Elections problem last night was that their basement flooded with the heavy rain yesterday.
Update, 11:09 a.m.: Multnomah just released its 11 am update, 51% counted and Merkley picked up a net 2000 votes. The Oregonian count is now Smith by 6899 votes. A few smaller rural counties have now completed their counts. My estimate is that we should finish up with Merkley up by 30,186 votes.
Update, 12:15 p.m.: We've got updates from Jackson, Lane, and Multnomah. Smith picked up 431 votes in Jackson, but Merkley picked up 2280 in Lane and 3055 in Multnomah - for a total pickup of 4904 for Merkley. We're now at Smith by 3278 votes. My estimate for Merkley keeps improving; my numbers now show a win by 36,216 votes.
Update, 12:38 p.m.: Deschutes County is now done counting, with a shift of 4594 votes toward Smith. The latest updates from Benton and Clackamas are a net 1103 for Smith. We're now at Smith by 7872 votes. Lane is 55% counted, Multnomah is 51% counted, Clackamas is 65% counted (and a dead heat right now). Marion is 71% counted, Jackson is 73% counted, Linn is 78% counted, and Benton is 84% counted. So, things are still looking good. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,327 votes.
Update, 1:29 p.m.: Not much change this time, except that Douglas County has basically completed its count, giving Smith another 1006 votes net. We're now at Smith by 8880 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,051 votes.
Update, 1:32 p.m.: Multnomah is now up to 55% counted. Net gain for Merkley of 2630 votes. We're now at Smith by 6252 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,988 votes. Incidentally, there's speculation in the comments about geographic effects within counties. Remember that with vote-by-mail, that's not really much of a factor - since votes come in uniformly over time. (It could be a tiny factor, since it's plausible that people very close to the elections office might be more likely to walk in at 7 p.m. on election day. But not much.)
Update, 2:17 p.m.: Lane is now 63% counted, and Multnomah is 56% counted. Merkley had a net gain of 2634 votes in Multnomah and 1311 votes in Lane. We're now at Smith up by 4717 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 34,367 votes. The counting in Multnomah has slowed from roughly 10,000 votes an hour this morning to 6000 votes an hour this afternoon. I think we can officially call this water torture.
Update, 3:12 p.m.: A bunch of updates this time. Multnomah County is 57% counted, with net gain for Merkley of 3241 votes. Jackson County is now up to 85% counted, with a net gain for Smith of 1387 votes. Also, Clackamas reported a few thousand more votes, though it's not changing the outcome much as Smith and Merkley are basically even there. Same for Marion County, now up to 72% counted, but no change. We're now at Smith by 3483 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 34,628 votes.
Update, 4:08 p.m.: Multnomah and Clackamas have new numbers - a net gain between them of 1431 votes for Jeff Merkley. Smith is now up by only 1960 votes. I've been engaged in an offline debate with some friends (outside the campaign) about the best way to do project the numbers forward. I've come to the conclusion that they're right, and my projections have been underestimating the final Merkley numbers. So, under the new methodology (and finally pulling together all 36 counties), my new estimate is that Merkley will win by 85,280 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:25 p.m.: Marion and Lane just updated - a net gain for Merkley of 1216 votes. Smith is up by 1238 votes. In the next hour or so, we should see Merkley take the lead. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 84,691 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:40 p.m.: Benton County and Jackson County just updated - a net shift toward Smith of 1670 votes. Smith is up by 2506 votes. Waiting on Multnomah County's 5 p.m. numbers. My estimate right now is that Merkley will win by 82,086 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:50 p.m.: Not sure where they're getting their numbers Their numbers are old, so the lead isn't real, but KGW says that Merkley has overtaken Smith in the count. And so does CNN. KATU does too.
Update, 5:10 p.m.: Multnomah County is now at 60% counted, with a net shift for Merkley of 2524 votes. For the first time, Jeff Merkley is now leading by 18 votes.
Update, 5:32 p.m.: Oh, dammit. I found a stupid spreadsheet glitch in my estimate, which explains why it seemed so high. OK, my new-and-improved and up-to-date estimate is that Merkley will win by 54,256 votes. Also, I had a typo in my latest Smith numbers for Multnomah. Merkley now leads by 382 votes, a count that agrees with the Oregonian.
Update, 6:00 p.m.: We have breaking news, so we're moving everything to a new post.
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November 5, 2008 |
Kari Chisholm | Comments (129 so far)
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Comments
Posted by: torridjoe | Nov 5, 2008 9:58:59 AM
I think I saw that Jackson has some still out, but thanks to the great work of the Jackson Dems, he's running pretty close there, smith even under 50 last I saw.
Can't imagine how jeff doesn't win this.
Posted by: Albert Kaufman | Nov 5, 2008 10:08:52 AM
I want this so bad, it's holding up my delight at Obama's win. C'mon vote-counters, make my Merkley day!
Posted by: Jefferson Smith | Nov 5, 2008 10:09:59 AM
Hard to see how the remaining counties don't flip it to Merkley. I think it's unlikely that Hibbits has to eat crow.
If ratios in Mult. and Lane County hold, Merkley will win by 50,000+ votes.
Posted by: TroyB | Nov 5, 2008 10:10:56 AM
I'm hoping that Merkley and No on 64 both pick up a bunch from the remaining Multnomah... The last thing I want to see is Gordon Smith and Bill Sizemore celebrating right now. Come on Multnomah!
Posted by: TR | Nov 5, 2008 10:11:30 AM
It may have well been those TV ads claiming illegal immigrants were packaging peas at Smith Frozen Foods that will put Jeff Merkley over the top to win a seat as Oregon’s new junior US Senator. Now the election is past tense, it is time for Merkley to follow up and make sure day labor centers like the one the City of Portland set up with taxpayer money are not catering to illegal immigrants placing them in the work force illegally, and that community colleges require proof of citizenship so that taxpayer dollars are not being spent to train illegal immigrants to package peas or for other profession where they would be hired in violation of immigration labor laws. Anything less would be hypocritical.
Posted by: paulie | Nov 5, 2008 10:16:16 AM
Jackson County turned out 46.6% of the vote for Jeff Merkley. We are still counting ballots down here and should be completed around 2:00 PM. We've got two tight races still crawling along. Lynn Howe vs Sal Esquivel for state rep. in HD6 and Jim Olney vs Dennis Smith for County Commissioner. Howe and Olney are first time Democratic candidates up against two long time Republican incumbents.
One thing is for certain, the R's can no longer count on Jackson County as a safe county. Bring it on. We're meeting on Saturday to develop our two year game plan to elect a Democratic governor!
Posted by: Robert Laliberte | Nov 5, 2008 10:30:30 AM
Hey kari, I was just starting to write this same diary for DKos-I'm glad I refreshed BlueOregon before I put too much work into it :). Perhaps you could crosspost.
Posted by: Mike Smith | Nov 5, 2008 10:30:48 AM
If all trends that are shown on the DailyKos map hold, Merkley should win by 90,000 votes. It's pretty easy to add up the results, and none of the current results in the remaining counties seem unusual.
Posted by: Kristin | Nov 5, 2008 10:33:55 AM
Way to go, Paulie Thanks so much for all of your hard work.
Posted by: Christy | Nov 5, 2008 11:02:07 AM
So, by this rationale, 61 fails. If so, then what? Do we have to stick with 57, despite that fact that lots and lots of people would have voted no if not for the threat of 61? Ahhh. Multnomah County needs to get her ballots counted because I am kind of freaking out about that, about the Senate race, and about 64. Can I come help? I can totally count.
Posted by: Sargent | Nov 5, 2008 11:21:00 AM
At 11:13, the Oregonian posted:
Merkley 618,736
Smith 626,066
But the headline still reads "Smith Leads."
Posted by: Admiral Naismith | Nov 5, 2008 11:26:44 AM
Not only did Obama get a landslide, but so did the far-downticket races. And most of our state legislative gains were in Clackamas and East Multnomah.
If those districts that elected Karen Minnis and John Lim instead voted Democrat by LARGE margins, one would think that all of Multnomah will give Merkley a big, big boost.
And has a statewide Democrat ever won WaCo and tied Clackamas, yet lost the election?
But then--it's easy to "prove" on paper that Merkley must win; I'll be much happier when the results back it up.
Lane I'm not so confident about. It could be that Eugene/Springfield have already been counted and the results we have yet to see are from the outlying conservative rural parts of the county.
Posted by: Sargent | Nov 5, 2008 11:34:47 AM
Doh! Smith still leads. Back to the pot for another cup of coffee.
Posted by: How many votes does Merkley need? | Nov 5, 2008 11:48:55 AM
Multnomah County is waiting to see how many votes Merkley needs before they finish their count.
The basement flooded and destroyed a bunch of Republican Ballots which have to be "copied" onto dry ballots.
It's like getting a ticket in Mexico: how much is the fine, officer? How much do you have in your wallet?
Posted by: Albert Kaufman | Nov 5, 2008 11:49:45 AM
I'll be updating Merkley stats all day today here or you can refresh @ the O at will!
go Jeff!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Ted Wheeler | Nov 5, 2008 12:04:45 PM
I was just at the elections HQ - they are doing a tremendous job. It is true that the basement has flooded, but I must correct the statement made above about ballots being destroyed. The ballots have been moved, all of the ballots are secure, none have been destroyed or are even wet, and counting has continued unabated. The entire process is being observed by party officials, as always. Interesting side note: MC received over 80 thousand ballots on the last day - this is by far a record. That's good, of course, but it means we will have to be more patient to await the results...
Posted by: Albert Kaufman | Nov 5, 2008 12:06:28 PM
Merkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley Merkley!!!
Posted by: Marshall Collins | Nov 5, 2008 12:07:01 PM
Lane County just gave a noon update. It looks like Merkley netted up about 2k.
Next Lane Co update at 2pm
Posted by: RichW | Nov 5, 2008 12:17:56 PM
No, How Many Votes..., it not the ballots that are all wet.
Posted by: Marc in PDX | Nov 5, 2008 12:18:48 PM
mult county just updated and merkley gained 3,055 on smith
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Nov 5, 2008 12:19:46 PM
Note for the out-of-town folks. Ted Wheeler, commenting above, is the chair of the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners.
Posted by: backbeat | Nov 5, 2008 12:25:07 PM
Oregonian website: why do Sherman and Columbia counties haver more than 100% counted?
Posted by: johnnie | Nov 5, 2008 12:32:11 PM
That's the beautiful thing about mail in ballots. Multnomah County election and continue counting until they have enough votes to win.
Like WA Govenor's race, recounted until you finally won the third recount - then stop counting.
Weird how boxes of uncounted (recycled?) ballots just seem to show up each time you look into the ballot room. I'm going to guess Ted will stop counting once Merkley has won.
Hey, at least the Dems have learned from past mistakes elsewhere in the country to keep the voter registration count high enough (through ACORN distribution of cigs) so you don't have exceed 100% turnout.
Posted by: Pete Forsyth | Nov 5, 2008 12:36:34 PM
Christy, I think you underestimate the number of people who will vote for a "law and order" measure, no matter what -- but are willing to go with the more reasonable one given the choice.
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Nov 5, 2008 12:37:40 PM
Ignore Johnnie the troll. Multnomah County is teeming with ballot observers from the Merkley and Smith campaigns.
Posted by: BOHICA | Nov 5, 2008 12:38:33 PM
Weird how boxes of uncounted (recycled?) ballots just seem to show up each time you look into the ballot room
Don't you love the smell of sour grapes in the morning?
Posted by: Chris Lowe | Nov 5, 2008 12:41:02 PM
Christy,
The thing is that there is a chunk of people who voted yes on 57 and no on 61 who would have voted yes on 61 if there had not been a 57 option.
Posted by: Sargent | Nov 5, 2008 12:41:13 PM
Is there a Merkley-Smith watch party anywhere we can go and cheer as these results get better throughout the day? It could be Election Night, Part 2.
Posted by: Robin in Central OR | Nov 5, 2008 12:44:14 PM
Thank you Kari for these updates! I am on pins and needles. I live in Central Oregon -- did a lot of canvassing for Merkley and let me tell you... those Smith ads were very effective. Ugh.
And thank you for alerting re the troll. I don't read here that often so for all I know that poster could be a beloved regular here! (And I was reading the comments.... thinking WTF?).
MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK!
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Nov 5, 2008 12:47:01 PM
Is there a Merkley-Smith watch party anywhere we can go and cheer as these results get better throughout the day?
No watch party that I know about - but once this race is called, expect that there will be a Merkley speech somewhere. I'll keep you posted.
Posted by: Mark | Nov 5, 2008 12:47:12 PM
Thanks Johnnie (the trollster),
Your comments made me think this.
I believe it's time to start the troll contribution fund for 2010.
Sign me up....
Posted by: Kari Chisholm | Nov 5, 2008 12:47:36 PM
Please stay on topic. We've got a ballot measure thread available for chit-chat about 57 and 61.
Posted by: rural resident | Nov 5, 2008 12:54:11 PM
Kari .... Lane has counted more than 55% of the actual ballots, since the turnout will obviously be less than 100%. My guess is that about 85% voted, so they're actually about 2/3 through the counting process as of the 12 noon update.
Are the other percentages you have listed in relation to total numbers of registered voters or actual number of ballots returned?
Posted by: Marc in PDX | Nov 5, 2008 1:15:44 PM
mult. coutny updated again - merkley gained 2,670 votes
Posted by: N in Seattle | Nov 5, 2008 1:26:00 PM
Kari,
I am so reminded of all the fun I had on dKos in 2004, when I wrote the WA-Gov series about our gubernatorial count, recount, and second recount. It started when I made a few spreadsheet extrapolations like yours, and then went on and on and on, almost to New Year's Day.
Here's hoping that your Merkley-Smith outcome doesn't come even remotely near Gregoire's final 129-vote margin. And that Merkley's reelection campaign in 2014 looks more like Gregoire-Rossi II.
Posted by: Chris Lowe | Nov 5, 2008 1:28:19 PM
rural resident,
Multnomah County provides a figure for actual number of ballots returned (some of which may prove invalid for one reason or another).
Other counties do not seem to provide that figure on their websites, nor does the state that I can find. Rather, they just give the total registration, the number of votes cast so far, and then the latter as % of former, sometimes calling that turnout.
As Jenni indicated on this thread or another, this seems to be an artifact of a pre-mail-in reporting system, since most counties also report !00% of precincts reporting when that only means that a ballot has been counted from that precinct (ballots no longer are counted out of ballot boxes that come from specific precincts -- I am not sure if they used to be counted at specific precinct locations or were transported to central places).
If there's a place where info on actual ballots returned can be found for counties other than Multnomah, anyone know where it is?
If not, we should ask Kate Brown to change this for the sake of transparency.
Kari, your naive reliance on Republican count watchers is touching -- don't you know that they have been hand-picked by Ted W.'s Tammany West operation from ultra-RINOs who consider the RINO Smith not INO enough?
Posted by: N in Seattle | Nov 5, 2008 1:32:11 PM
I didn't see the comment by your troll johnnie until after I'd posted my comment above. It's good to see that trollery crosses state lines.
The bitterness, and the baseless accusations of fraud by those whose "GOTV" campaign seems to be based on suppression of legitimate voters, is increasingly pathetic.
Posted by: Albert Kaufman | Nov 5, 2008 1:34:28 PM
are people gathering at the HQ on 30th and Division?
Posted by: Jon Zall | Nov 5, 2008 1:37:00 PM
I hope you are right about the eventual result and the 30,000 vote difference for Jeff. Having read your updates (thank you!) and the responses so far, I haven't seen a real answer to the question: if Multnomah and Lane counties are basically the only ones left, why hasn't the reported difference shrunk to less than 6-8,000 for the last several hours?
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Nov 5, 2008 1:44:52 PM
Kari, while we're watching the Merkley results, do you have any updates on M64. I know my loyal and true union brothers and sisters would love to hear Multco is going to defeat it, too.
Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Nov 5, 2008 1:51:23 PM
If Merkley does end up winning this, Dave Brownlow is going to be permanently struck from Gordo's Christmas mailing list.
Posted by: Union Buddy | Nov 5, 2008 1:52:46 PM
Thanks Johnnie (the trollster),
Your comments made me think this.
I believe it's time to start the troll contribution fund for 2010.
Sign me up....
You are going to need that fund when 64 passes and the union gravey train takes a hit. Fire that baby up! Sucks to have to play by the same rules as everyone else doesn't it...
Posted by: Albert Kaufman | Nov 5, 2008 1:55:18 PM
7 minutes till 2pm. Ahhh, suspense killing me.
Called election HQ and they mentioned they were cleaning up in the war room, and could use some help at the office. 30th and Division
Posted by: Bert Lowry | Nov 5, 2008 2:00:20 PM
Union Buddy, 64 isn't going to pass.
Posted by: Marshall Collins | Nov 5, 2008 2:05:43 PM
Lane County- Another Merkley net gain of around 2k!!! This is good stuff! Next update at 4pm
Posted by: Marc in PDX | Nov 5, 2008 2:07:55 PM
multnomah county updated a few minutes ago - merkley gains 2,634
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Posted by: Jeff Alworth | Nov 5, 2008 9:56:38 AM
This has been my assumption, too, much as I assumed Obama was going to win. Still, I would like something more solid than projections based on county-level vote counts. I want this thing officially in the bag!