The Editors Predict

Karol Collymore

Why do we make predictions?  Because the end of the year has arrived.  Why do we predict what will happen in the coming decade when the current one has not actually ended?  Because we are not pedants.  Thus the editors of BlueOregon have put together the definitive list of what will happen in 2010 and the decade of the teens.  Why would we do something that we know will end up making us look like fools?  Because it's fun. 

Weigh in with your additions in the comments--and we'll see you next year.

In reverse alphabetical order (all editors at BlueO have surnames ending in a, b, or c) here we go:

Karol Collymore

Kari Chisholm

Charlie Burr

Carla Axtman

Jeff Alworth

All right, your turn.

Comments

  • mp97303 (unverified)
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    @Jeff

    I rec'd a call Sat about how I was voting on 66/67. When I said Yes on 66 and No on 67, there was stunned silence on the other end.

    He said I was the first person he had talked to who split their vote.

  • Chuck Butcher (unverified)
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    I don't have the nerve to make predictions other than GOP stupidity grows...

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    Oh this is really fun; what a good idea all.

    My Predictions:

    Measures 66 & 67 pass.

    The Kitz with take the high ground in both the primary and general elections, winning with integrity and without having to resort to personal attacks or other negative campaigning. He will inspire a new generation of politicians to do the same.

    Oregon eventually votes in a Oregon Hope Scholarship type program though the initiative process, bypassing Salem entirely.

    The tea party movement simultaneously destroys the Republican Party's chances for dominance while strengthening the Democrats in the process, even as they are told that is exactly what they are doing while they do it. No stopping them.

    That's it, that's all I got. Blazer predictions are way over my head.

  • KenRay (unverified)
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    I predict myopia on the part of the punditry above.

    The "experts" got three of the four football games wrong last weekend and politics is harder to predict than sports.

    But.............

    The list of Democrats deciding not to run again to avoid an investigation (ala Dodd) grows by two.

    If Kitzhaber is the Democratic nominee, I predict an up-ticket lag instead of the down-ticket one typically seen.

    The Democratic Party finally decides whose side it is on: the working people in the unions, or the environmentalists that want to eliminate more of the industrial, production, and resource-based jobs that a family can live on.

  • Jim L. (unverified)
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    Kari-- "The GOP will nominate Mitt Romney in 2014". Unfortunately for Romney, the election will be held in 2012.

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    Jim, nice catch. I fixed it. (I actually posted this, and as a testament to my editorial skills, I missed it, too.)

  • (Show?)

    I predict KenRay wants to split the Democratic Party --labor vs. green -- with his or her comments because he/she can see the writing on the walls for Republicans long run and is sour about it.

  • KenRay (unverified)
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    Actually I am pretty happy. The writing on the wall looks pretty good.

  • Rob (unverified)
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    Way to go out on a limb. Why don't you swing for the fences and predict Obama winning a Nobel Prize, wait....

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    One of the Big Three auto manufacturers will finally produce a pickup that can carry a 4x8 sheet of plywood between the fender wells and still get over 30 mpg.

    I'll buy one.

    Of course I won't be able to drive it into Portland as internal combustion engines will be illegal inside the UGB (and anywhere else in the state that there are any trees).

    <hr/>

    Kitzhaber will win the election in a walk, and will mandate airbags for all pedestrians and helmets in showers for anyone taller than he is. In a sea change from his previous gubernatorial behavior, he will now nod solemnly before ignoring any and all input from the Great Unwashed.

    <hr/>

    The Bus Project will actually put up a couple of women candidates for the statehouse. OK. Never mind. That's just crazy.

    <hr/>

    Both progressives and libertarians will continue with the same old arguments, with each convinced that they are the only group on the planet that is truly Objective. They will both continue to be wrong.

    <hr/>

    Liz Cheney will shoot Phyllis Schafly in the face while hunting.........peasants.

    <hr/>

    The Bill of Rights, having become entirely obsolete, will be repealed in toto and anyone daring to object will be executed by prolonged and agonizing ridicule. Every human being will have a head mounted camera installed at birth, but we still won't know where the terris are to be found as HalliburSoft will get the no bid contract to correlate the data.

    <hr/>

    As a larger percentage of the population becomes beige, peple will beging to dye their skin in various unnatural colors like blue and orange to retain continuity for those who wish to identify as victims or bigots, or both.

    <hr/>

    We will finally get the public school system whipped into shape and the classroom ratio will be one counselor, one administrator, one nutritionist, and one teacher per student.

    With cost per student at $300,000 per year, we will finally raise our student test scores to a level exceeding that of Somalia and Afghanistan, although a steady diet of corn syrup and hydrogenated vegetable oil will have the little darlings commuting in recliners. They will also be quipped with airbags.

    <hr/>

    I know I'm forgetting someone........

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    2010: Health reform passes. Democrats lose House nationally.

    2011 – Gas hits $4 per gallon. Japanese firm buy the Blazers. Less than 1% of Oregon K-12 students study Mandarin. First 20 Oregon high school students go to China on Obama’s study in China program. 2% of Oregon K-12 education is online.

    2012 - First 200 Oregon high school students go abroad on Oregon’s Go Global High School Study Abroad Program; 80 go to China. Terrorist group takes out East Coast power grid. Obama reelected.

    2013 – Legislature passes phased privatization of Higher Ed and shifts to funding student scholarship. 10% of Oregon students take higher ed online. 2% of Oregon’s K-12 students study Mandarin, 150 high school students go to China. Immigration reform passes national: creating pathway to citizenship for those hear and opening the US to international talent. Iran and Brazil test nuclear weapons.

    2014 – Gas hits $6 per gallon. Chinese firm buys Intel. National Democratic Party splits over free trade/environment/labor issues issues. 3% of Oregon K-12 students study Mandarin. Japanese move Blazers to Tokyo. Terrorists release anthrax in Los Angeles: thousands are sick, city is quarantined.

    2015 – Civil war erupts in Mexico: drug gangs control several states. Construction begins on high-speed rail system connecting Eugene to Vancouver, Canada. Legislature funds sending 1,500 Oregon high school students to China each summer. 5% of Oregon K-12 education is online. Castro dies.

    2016 – Brazil firm buys Fred Meyer. Marijuana is decriminalized nationally. 4% of Oregon students study Mandarin. 30% of Oregon students take higher ed online. First Hispanic US president elected.

    2018 – Gas hit $8 per gallon. Terrorist group poisons Dallas’ water supply: 2,000 die. Canada breaks into two countries. Indian firm buy Macy's.

    2019 – 6% of Oregon K-12 students study Mandarin. California splits into two states. Terrorist bomb and close Panama Canal.

    2020 – Gas hits $10 per gallon. Puerto Rico, Cuba, Monterrey (now Mexico) and Haiti become US states. 3,000 Oregon high school students study abroad: 1000 in China. 10% of Oregon K-12 education is online. 50% of Oregon students take higher ed online.

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    Portland voters are asked to endorse the public financing system they've enjoyed for the last few years. There will finally be enough interest in it that the important policy questions get thoroughly aired on blogs, on the radio, etc.; Portlanders ultimately approve the system.

  • Chris Turk (unverified)
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    If 66-67 go down in flames, then you can be sure that lots of instructors will be cut. This is Oregon's big chance to gut its public university system. Why does Oregon need a university system, anyway???

  • Kurt Chapman (unverified)
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    Oregon Politics - 66/67 pass; but by the skin of their teeth. Dems maintain majority in salem, but lose out to a growing number of non-affiliated politicians claiming to represent their regions rather than any political dogma. Kitz loses in primary to bradbury as countless NAV's and Republicans temporarily switch to democrat to insure Kitz remains, well Kitz.

    State Politics - The rpublican party never recovers from the self inflicted schism of the conservative christians v the moderates. A viable third party arises and seriously espouses creation of the mythical state of Jefferson. The state finally passes a sales tax and does away with centralized land use planning. In 2014 Oregonians are finally deemed smart enough to pump their own gas and Oregon becomes the first state to legalize (and tax) marijuana.

    National Politics - Obama and the national Democrat party are so bruised by medical reform and the need to produce a jobs based recovery that Card check and Cap and Tax are forgotten - never pass. Even though the national Republican party can do no better than Romney, Obama loses a close election and becomes the next great former President after Jimmy Carter. Isreal pre-emptively attacks Iran and world oil prices plummet. The newly disengaged 20 somethings stay away from national/state politics in droves because they feel duped by the professionals.

    Non political - Jimmy Buffet sells out a small venue tour with The Eagles, 90 shows in 5 months. Each concert ends with a tribute to Warren Zevon. Jake Locker, UW quarterback wins the Heisman in 2010. USC, plagued by NCAA sanctions and 4 coaches in 6 years is dead last in the PAC-10. Oregon Ducks realize that they need to be in the WAC. California General assembly, realizing they need non-tax revenue finally allow drilling for oil in the Santa Barbara Channel on the known 800,000 barrel field known as Coal Oil Point. PGE, gets rid of boardman and voluntarily mounts solar panels on 300,000 structures in Central and Southern Oregon.

  • Lou Fleming (unverified)
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    The first collective bargaining agreement for state employed marijuana dispensary employees will be negotiated and drug testing will be one of the major sticking points.

  • In Plato's Cave (unverified)
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    "If 66-67 go down in flames, then you can be sure that lots of instructors will be cut. This is Oregon's big chance to gut its public university system. Why does Oregon need a university system, anyway???"

    "Where would this college be without football? Have we got a stadium? ... Have we got a college? ... Well, we can't support both. Tomorrow we start tearing down the college."

    Professor Quincy Wagstaff

  • Terry Parker (unverified)
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    IN THE NEXT DECADE:

    Push back by the people to dictatorial policies and social engineering by government (Federal, State Local and Metro) that attempt to control transport, housing and lifestyle choices will continue gain ground to the point government will be required to reverse course and shift policy on some items.

    Government will continue to waste taxpayer dollars on frills, elitist projects and attempting to tell the populous how to live.

    Bicyclists will be required to license and pay registration fees on their bicycles to legitimately use public-right-of-ways - Insurance will be required by the end of the decade.

    Traffic congestion in the Portland-Metro area will significantly increase due to population growth, regional policies that limit road capacity and expansion, and due to transit vehicles obstructing other traffic.

    Electric cars will fail to attract a substantial number of buyers. New fuels will come on the market.

    Electricity and natural gas will be in short supply in some areas. Brownouts may occur.

    Water will also be in short supply in some areas. A discussion about how to reduce population growth will finally be on the table. Slim Pickens will make a fortune leasing his land to pump the water from the aqua furs beneath it.

    Taxes will outpace inflation.

    The unemployment rate will remain excessively high – jobs will continue to disappear at a high rate due to environmental over-regulation.

    The cost of living will also significantly increase also due to environmental over-regulation. Inflation will be extreme. Poverty rates will rise.

    The middle class will slowly disappear with a large percent of the population under employed.

    Debt ridden governments will require a pull back of stimulus packages, energy credits and development subsidies. The green economy will fail due to lack of government subsidies.

    Climate change will be deemed a natural occurrence once scientific opinions can No longer be bought by the government.

    China will make demands on the US economy. GDP in China will the US.

    The wealthy, including top execs and bankers will become super wealthy by buying votes through campaign contributions.

    Elected officials will continue to use taxpayer dollars for lush junkets. The number of political scandals will increase.

    Congress will continue to give themselves raises while cutting back on other entitlement programs like social security. (As was done recently when congress insignificantly increased their monthly salary to keep up with inflation while holding the line on social security telling recipients there was no inflation.)

    Ted Wheeler will seek a higher office.

    Sam Adams will leave politics.

    Sorry to be so pessimistic, but I do not wear rose colored glasses some people wear.

  • Terry Parker (unverified)
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    Correction; The GDP in China will outpace the US.

  • Brodhead For Congress (unverified)
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    My predictions:

    David Wu will lose

    66/67 will not pass

    and Chisholm will still be in a cheap run down apartment, blogging in his underwear, playing Xbox, and eating Bon Bons.

    Carla will finally get a real job and then realize that taxation sucks

    Karol will get a state job and forget about Blue Oregon

    And I have already forgotten about the other to fellas!

    http://www.BrodheadForCongress.com

  • Brodhead For Congress (unverified)
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    Oh and one more thing: You are morons!

  • John (unverified)
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    2011: With Sam cutting the ribbon at its grand opening, Wal-Mart will open a gleaming Hayden Meadows store.

    Within two years, it will close a "money-losing" super-store across the river, but promise that the pink-slipped Washingtonians will be placed in other nearby stores.

  • John (unverified)
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    And one more thing: Brodhead will be elected to Congress by a landslide.

  • Rudy V. (unverified)
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    Decade: Another one goes by without a binding international climate agreement...and then it's too late.

  • LT (unverified)
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    John, you really think 1st Dist. residents will elect a guy who calls people morons?

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    Brodhead:

    When calling people morons, be sure to spell your words correctly. It's "the other TWO fellas," not "the other to fellas."

    And I'm not even gonna call you a moron -- you do a much better on your own.

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    Kari, I have to say -- the Bay doesn't like your Google/Facebook prediction. I do (like it) but my neighbors think you're nuts.

  • Ricky (unverified)
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    2010 National Democrats continue to gain in the House and Senate elections, ending up gaining +2 senate seats and +15 house. Healthcare Reform is signed into law and the nay-sayers begin to retreat.

    2010 Oregon Kitzhaber wins and goes about reforming the OHP. Oregon moves from one of the states with the lowest employment rates, to the middle of the pack, thanks to the passing of Measure 66, 67 and a tidal wave of small businesses on the scene, unfazed by the increasing fees to start new businesses in the bills, or worries about tax accountability.

    2011 National Obama's popularity soars as troops begin to come home. Rachel Maddow's ratings surpass O'Reilly. You can feel the progressiveness in the air, throughout the nation.

    2011 Oregon State revenues soar thanks to 66, 67 and public schools move up from near failing to a C- ranking. The school year is increased by 17 days in order to help kids get a competitive head start and increase their ACT scores, and readiness for college.

    2012 National Enjoying his enormous popularity, Obama sweeps the electoral vote. His campaign focuses on Energy Reform and also on reforming the Auto Industry. This will be linked to stopping the planet from the impending destruction of global warming. Democrats gain additional seats in the house and senate. A member of the newly formed Tea Bag Party is elected to the House and he is an African-American. The Green Party makes a brief comeback, driven by disillusioned celebrities, but not enough to offset the margins in any state.

    2012 Oregon Oregon becomes the first state where the majority of the state legislature consists of members of the LGBT community. Gay marriage is written into law and stands up to scrutiny when reviewed by the State Courts. The right-wing newspaper, The Oregonian, goes bankrupt and folds. This stimulates huge growth for the weekly printed newspapers, and increases Blue Oregon eyeballs by 340,000 viewers per hour.

  • Ron Morgan (unverified)
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    "Liz Cheney will shoot Phyllis Schafly in the face while hunting.........peasants."

    Two days later Schafly will call a presser to apologize to Cheney for the inconvenience... oh, wait...

  • meg (unverified)
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    The deal used to be that civil servants were paid less than private sector workers in exchange for an understanding that they had job security for life.

    But we politicians, pushed by our friends in labor, gradually expanded pay and benefits to private-sector levels while keeping the job protections and layering on incredibly generous retirement packages that pay ex-workers almost as much as current workers.

    Talking about this is politically unpopular and potentially even career suicide for most officeholders. But at some point, someone is going to have to get honest about the fact that 80 percent of the state, county and city budget deficits are due to employee costs.

  • Phil Philiben (unverified)
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    "The Cubs will win the World Series", Karol, that a fantasy not a prediction. As a born White Sox fan my fantasy is that the White Sox beat the Cubs in the World Series. You can only understand my fantasy if you grew up in Chicago and had to endlessly listen to Cub fan fantasies and the eternal chant of "wait to next year". I also believe that if the White Sox and Cubs ever play in the World Series, Chicago will slowly slide into Lake Michigan.

  • Nick from Eugene (unverified)
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    Former President George W. Bush will spend $500+ million on a Presidential Library...surpassing by a mile the record for most money spent on a books by someone who didn't learn how to read until he was a junior at Yale.

  • Nick from Eugene (unverified)
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    Oops...typo on that one...should read:

    Former President George W. Bush will spend $500+ million on his Presidential Library...surpassing by a mile the record for most money spent on books by someone who didn't learn how to read until he was a junior at Yale.

  • Roy M (unverified)
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    M66-M67 fails by a wide margin. Hundreds of teachers are given their notice. Other state layoffs are also announced. Later, it is determined that most of those workers won't actually lose their jobs, but the positions will be lost through attrition, because open positions are not going to be filled.

    A Republican Governor is elected after one term of Kitz, and hopes are high she will finally address state spending issues. However, she will be hamstrung with a progressive legislature, the likes that no one in this State has seen before.

    Obama runs again, but is defeated in the primary by you know who. He never to gets the chance to debate Palin on National issues of concern.

    Before the end of the decade we go to war with at least two other countries, Gay marriage is accepted nationwide, Drug possession is decriminalized, the NBA is in financial crisis, Tiger finally stops the charade (comes out and marries a man), and computer keyboards are a thing of the past.

    Disclaimers: none.

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    Obama runs again, but is defeated in the primary by you know who.

    LOL...thus endeth the actual last chapter of the Harry Potter series.

  • peaceful1 (unverified)
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    1. More and more people will begin to realize that religion is a hugely destructive force in the world and will stop treating it like a biological characteristic.

    "Letter to a Christian Nation" by Sam Harris

    1. After joining FOX, Sarah Palin gets pregnant again, but this time the father's Hannity! Palin finally condemns abstinence only sex ed. They name the kid Freedom.
  • Rudy V. (unverified)
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    Posted by: Terry Parker | Jan 11, 2010 7:59:27 PM Bicyclists will be required to license and pay registration fees on their bicycles to legitimately use public-right-of-ways - Insurance will be required by the end of the decade.

    Traffic congestion in the Portland-Metro area will significantly increase due to population growth, regional policies that limit road capacity and expansion, and due to transit vehicles obstructing other traffic.

    Electric cars will fail to attract a substantial number of buyers. New fuels will come on the market.

    Based on human nature and having met you in the slime, it's more likely an irate biker/Tri-Met rider will plug your ass!

  • Jake Leander (unverified)
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    Pat Ryan wrote:

    One of the Big Three auto manufacturers will finally produce a pickup that can carry a 4x8 sheet of plywood between the fender wells and still get over 30 mpg.

    If it's reliable and available with a manual transmission, I'll also buy one.

  • Jake Leander (unverified)
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    Who is Mariah Carey?

  • Jake Leander (unverified)
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    Folks seem to predict things they want to see happen. My experience has been that if I want it, it does not come to pass - although a dark chocolate Almond Joy was available for a while.

  • zull (unverified)
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    66 passes solidly, 67 is a squeaker (but passes). The bottom line is that Oregon's corporations pay the least corporate tax in the nation, but our unemployment is among the highest. Obviously giving those corporations the tax cuts isn't improving the job situation as much as certain people think it should. Bradbury wins the guv...voters question Kitzhaber's reasons and motivation to be reelected again. Obama/Biden is reelected in 2012. Teabag phenomenon becomes passe, ends up being reincorporated back into the Republican party (but the party changes its tone and focuses more on Libertarian values, which draws in the libertarian/Ron Paul vote, but pushes out social conservatives). When the world realizes that water is the next great commodity as oil is being phased out in favor of alternative fuels, the US economy rebounds. Old debts are forgiven for lower prices for fresh water exports.

    Non political prediction: The Blazers get close to the championship, but get beat in the championship game. The social divide between rural/urban Oregon continues. After all, all the people who are sick of boring rural Oregon move to Portland...and all the people who can't handle the weirdness move to rural Oregon. It's a system that, while divided, will continue on to perpetuity.

  • rfd97230 (unverified)
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    I was wondering why Carla was an editor, then noticed (unless I'm uber not seeing it) that there is no intern listed anymore. Big promotion? I think we can all agree she has refined the blog's focus in her time here.

  • LT (unverified)
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    "regional policies that limit road capacity and expansion"

    Which side of 217 would you widen near Washington Square?

    Having been caught in a traffic jam there, I noticed there doesn't seem to be a lot of flat, unoccupied land there.

  • Terry Parker (unverified)
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    Referencing some of my predications, Rudy V stated: “Based on human nature and having met you in the slime, it's more likely an irate biker/Tri-Met rider will plug your ass!” Is this a posted or suggested threat? The intent here obviously appears to be. Such words clearly demonstrate the socialist gutter politics and hostile attitude displayed by hardcore eco-supremacists, how far the deadbeat bicyclists will go to protect the free lunch they receive that other people pay for, and the need for more enforcement (not just education) that is necessary to require the freeloading pedal pushers to conform the laws and traffic rules of a modern society. Freedom of speech is a right. Making threats is unlawful. The question is now: which law enforcement agency should be notified for the purpose of a follow up prosecution of such a threat?

  • Geoff Ludt (unverified)
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    Oh fun stuff ...

  • Rudy V. (unverified)
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    I don't ride Tri-Met or bike commute. It was a prediction, that the environmental movement will turn militant. I wanted an example of what has become intolerable, and there Terry P. sat as a very convenient case in point of what real eco-terrorism is.

  • Brodhead For Congress (unverified)
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    Here are my other predictions:

    Brett Favre will get a one year 20 million dollar contract and comback next year and win the Superbowl

    The House dems will lose 150 seats

    Harry Reid will move back to Searchlight!

    germans will flock to oregon fort a summer vacation and spend a gog of bucks on the Oregon coast!

    Sorry I called you all morons, and bon bon eaters!

    I wll go ahead and amend that statement to "Liberals and responsible vegetarians"!

    Thats about the limit of my creative juices today.

  • Brodhead For Congress (unverified)
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    <h2>Sometimes the shift key doesnt work on this damn thing!</h2>

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